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The final picks are in ... who can win? Subscribe to this topic (Soon)
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almadenmike by: almadenmike
# Posts: 464
Level: City Council

Everyone’s picks are in for the pickem’s home stretch – the NCAA tourney! And while I am fortunate to have a 293-point lead going into March Madness, I thought I’d look into how secure my lead might be … especially after Mike77 whooped me by 250 points (533-283) in last week’s Conference Tournament round!
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It all depends on who makes the correct picks, of course. And the top 6 – me, UM Ftball Tiger, AEOS, Mike77, Motley Blazer and monachfan91 – definitely have differences of opinion. While 14 of the 24 remaining contestants (including me) picked Duke to win it all, I'm the only one in the Top 6 to do so. UM Ftball Tiger, Mike77 and Motley Blazer like Gonzaga. AEOS is the only one to favor 2-seed (Kentucky), and monarchfan91 is rooting for North Carolina.
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This disparity and earlier picks of high-seed upsets basically gives any of the Top 6 a chance to win. I looked at the points that the Top 7 (including Tiki Owl, who has Duke as the champion) would get if all of their picks that are different from mine were correct. For each of the Top 6, their potential differential is higher than my 251-point lead.
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If my hand-done tally is correct, UM Ftball Tiger can get 416 more points than me; AEOS, 519; Mike77, 813; Motley Blazer, 852 and monarchfan91, 572. (Sorry, Tiki … your picks can, at best, be only 235 points more than mine.)
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While choosing which of the 1- or 2-seeds will make it to the end is certainly a big key to success, so is picking which high-seeds will make a run ... ideally facing a team that you think will lose in the next round, which limits the loss if you’re wrong. I picked three double-digit seeds to win in Round 1 (Oregon, Florida & Belmont), with two (Oregon & Belmont) also winning their second games to get into the Sweet 16. UM Ftball picked NO double-digit seed winners; AEOS has 4 double-digit seeds winning in the 1st round and two in the 2nd (as well as a 7-seed); Mike77 picked 10 double-digit-seed first-round winners, with 3 making it through the 2nd round. Motley Blazer picked 6 double-digit-seed 1st-round winners, but none winning in the 2nd round. (But he does have two 6-seeds and a 7-seed getting to the Elite 8 … and 6-seed Villanova making it into the Final Four!) Monarchfan91 has five 1st-round double-digit-seed winners, 3 of which win their 2nd round games. Tiki Owl has only one 1st-round double-digit-seed winner, who loses in its 2nd-round contest.
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The last three rounds have the big points, of course: 20x seed for an Elite 8 win, 40x seed for a Semifinal victory and 80x seed for the NCAA Champion. Few of the Top 7 agree with my picks for these last three rounds, which could lead to some major late changes in the leaderboard. Monarchfan91 and I share NONE of the same picks for the last three rounds. UM Ftball Tiger, Mike77 and Motley Balzer & I share only one pick; Tiki Owl and I agree on just 3 picks, and AEOS and I have 5 of the same choices. In the leaderboard’s Top 6, I’m the only one picking Tennessee to get to the Final Four … and for Duke to win it all.
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Gonzaga’s success will be result in some large point swings. I have the Bulldogs losing to Florida State in the Sweet 16. But if they go on to win it all, that alone is worth a 150-point differential to UM Ftball Tiger, Mike77 and Motley Blazer.
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NOTE: My calculations refer only to the points that others get when their picks are correct and mine are not. This somewhat overstates their chances, since I have NOT taken into account the reverse situations, when I get points for a correct pick that they get wrong.
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FTR, Farleigh-Dickinson won on Tuesday, so I’ve already given up 16 points to UM FtBall tiger, Mike77, monarchfan91 and Tiki Owl.



Posted: 3/22/2019 9:11:26 AM

Mike77 by: Mike77
# Posts: 28
Level: Worker Bee

Thanks for all of your analysis, Almadenmike. I know if I have any hopes of catching you I have to pick against the "chalk." That is why I went with so many upsets. And of course, I have to pick my Old Dominion Monarchs as they represent C-USA against the evil empires of the Big 5 world!



Posted: 3/20/2019 2:19:43 PM

almadenmike by: almadenmike
# Posts: 464
Level: City Council

Thursday saw many exciting games that were in doubt to the final moments. But for the most part, chalk prevailed, which didn’t help Pickem challengers.
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I’ve been tracking the differences in the choices/results of the Top 7 on the leaderboard, rather than the point totals themselves. Through Thursday, there have been 13 games in which at least one of the Top 7 picked a winner that differed from my choice … that is, an opportunity to gain ground on me. But through Thursday, I made the winning choice in 9 of these games, which is bad news for the challengers. However, one of my wrong picks (Belmont) was also one of my 2nd-round picks, which will could hurt me this weekend.
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UM Ftball Tiger was also 9-4 in the difference-making games … and he had NO 2nd-round picks ousted. So he’s doing the best, although others currently have slightly higher point totals for the NCAA round.
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AEOS and Motley Blazer were both 7-6 in the contested picks, but AEOS lost two 2nd-round picks (Old Dominion & Syracuse) and Motley one (Nevada). Mike77 and monarchfan91 were 5-8. Monarch lost two 2nd-round picks (Belmont & New Mexico St.) while Mike dropped three (Belmont, New Mexico St. and Old Dominion).
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The complete point totals for Thursday’s games have just been posted, and my lead over UM Ftball Tiger has increased by 10 points to 303 (4,653-4,350).
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The challengers’ champion choices are, of course, most critical … and everyone’s picks are (not surprisingly at this early stage) still alive.
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The first of Friday’s games tips off within the hour. Good luck to all!!




Posted: 3/22/2019 9:43:33 AM